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2007.07.01
Many Tankers in the Persian Gulf were affected by Tropical Cyclone Gonu. The system is evaluated with hindcast.
Colorized infrared satellite image for 2 June 1200 UTC showing tropical storm 02A continuing to organize 12 hours after becoming a tropical storm in the Arabian Sea. The green and red colors indicate very cold cloud tops, indicative of very strong thunderstorm activity around the low-level circulation center.
Tropical cyclone Gonu began in late May as an unorganized area of cyclic convection over the southeastern Arabian Sea _ identified as invest 92A. Relatively high vertical wind shear as well as disorganization and close proximity to land had prevented significant development of this system during the initial stages. As 92A slowly moved northwest, improving environmental conditions allowed for the development of a tropical system worthy of the issuance of regular warnings. On May 31st at 1800Z, Weathernews (WNI) issued its first tropical warning for invest 92A. Infrared satellite images shortly after issuance of the first warning (Fig. 1) indicated that 92A was indeed organizing into a significant tropical depression. It continued to slowly organize over the twenty-four hours as it continued to move slowly to the west northwest. By 00Z on June 2nd, 92A had strengthened to a 40-knot storm and was named Tropical Storm 02A by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Fig. 2 shows an enhanced infrared satellite image showing the storm 12 hours after 92A became tropical storm 02A. By this time, the storm showed significant organization and good outflow in the upper levels. The storm continued its intensification over the next 12 hours, at which point it reached a 10-minute maximum sustained wind of 50 knots and was officially named Tropical Cyclone Gonu. It continued intensifying at a nearly climatological rate through June 3rd at 12Z, at which point it had reached 10-minuite maximum sustained wind of near 60 knots. By 12Z on June 4th, Gonu had reached 10-minute maximum sustained wind of 120 knots. Infrared satellite images showed a well-defined eye structure and excellent upper level outflow (Fig. 3). But, as is the case with many of the strongest tropical cyclones, it was not able to maintain its peak strength for very long, and by 12Z on June 5th, Gonu’s winds had weakened to near 70 knots. Gonu maintained its winds through 12Z on June 6th, at which point Gonu was very near the city of Muscat, the capital of Oman (Fig. 4). Gonu had maintained a general northwesterly movement across the Arabian Sea, with only one slight westerly deviation between June 1st and June 2nd. However, as Gonu reached the Gulf of Oman, it became increasingly influenced by an approaching trough of low pressure and thus took a north-northwesterly turn, eventually making landfall in southern Iran, east of the Strait of Hormuz. Winds upon landfall were estimated to be around 45 knots. Tropical Cyclone Gonu was the strongest tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea since record keeping began in 1945. The extreme abnormality of this storm, both in strength and in track, presented several forecasting challenges for the marine forecasters of WNI.