Thailand floods: Social and economic impact estimated at about THB 16.7 billion (about JPY 69.7 billion)

Direct effects on factories, alongside disruption to transport and logistics

In addition to direct effects on factories and other facilities, the floods have disrupted employees’ commutes and the transport of raw materials and parts because of flooded roads. According to Thailand’s Ministry of Industry, 1,267 businesses in 40 provinces nationwide have been affected by the flooding.

Media reports say that Toyota Motor temporarily suspended operations at four production sites in Thailand. Thai Airways also temporarily suspended cargo handling because flooding affected employees’ ability to get to work, among other factors.

Although no widespread, prolonged flooding like that seen in 2011 has been reported at major industrial estates, disruption to transport and logistics in surrounding areas has also affected manufacturing and other industries.

Social and economic impact estimated at THB 16.72 billion (about JPY 69.66 billion)

Weathernews independently estimates the social and economic impact of the floods at about THB 16.72 billion (about JPY 69.66 billion / USD 464 million). This is the net amount of social and economic losses, excluding overlapping amounts such as insurance payouts.

【Estimated breakdown by major category】

• Damage to buildings and homes: about THB 8.06 billion (about JPY 33.57 billion)
• Human losses: about THB 1.54 billion (about JPY 6.41 billion)
• Damage to transport infrastructure: about THB 1.49 billion (about JPY 6.20 billion)
• Damage to agriculture, forestry and fisheries: about THB 1.14 billion (about JPY 4.75 billion)
• Impact on manufacturing operations: about THB 1.04 billion (about JPY 4.33 billion)
• Government recovery and disaster response costs: about THB 1.01 billion (about JPY 4.20 billion)
• Damage to essential infrastructure: about THB 930 million (about JPY 3.87 billion)
• Decline in transport and logistics capacity: about THB 310 million (about JPY 1.30 billion)

※ The estimate of human losses uses the value of a statistical life (VSL) approach to assess the social and economic impact, based on the 23 deaths publicly reported as of September 29. It does not assign a monetary value to individual lives.

Continued attention to transport and logistics impacts and rising river levels

As of September 30, flooding was receding in some areas around Bangkok. However, flooding was continuing in central Thailand, partly because of water flowing down from the north.

In areas where roads remain flooded, disruption to logistics and commuting may continue. Companies operating in the area should check the latest information on river levels, flooded roads and logistics routes.

(Reference) Basis and methodology for the estimate

This is a preliminary estimate independently calculated by Weathernews under certain assumptions, based on publicly available information and satellite analysis as of September 29.

Using public statistics from the World Bank and other sources as baseline data, the estimate assigns monetary values to categories including flooded areas identified through satellite analysis, the industrial composition of affected regions, and impacts on buildings, infrastructure, manufacturing, logistics and people. Impacts on manufacturing and logistics were estimated using information on affected businesses and transport disruptions. Human impacts were estimated using the number of deaths publicly reported as of the same date and the value of a statistical life (VSL) approach.

Currency conversions use USD 1 = JPY 150 = THB 36 (THB 1 ≈ JPY 4.17).

Main sources and references

• Satellite flood-area data: Sentinel-1D satellite analysis by Thailand’s Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA); VIIRS data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
• Damage statistics: Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM); Thailand’s Ministry of Industry
• Industrial impacts: Published information and media reports concerning Toyota Motor, Thai Airways and others
• Economic statistics: World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI)

※ This is a preliminary estimate based on information available as of September 29, not a finalized damage total issued by a public authority. It does not reflect subsequent damage reports or updates to published information, and the estimate may change as new information becomes available.