Lessons Learned from the Northern Sea Route

In 1995, as a part of the Internaitonal Northwen Sea Route Programme (INSROP), an international effort that included Japan, Russia and Norway, among others, chartered a Russian icebreaker cargo vessel and traveled the Northern Sea Route from Yokohama, Japan to Kirkenes, Norway. The voyage lasted for four weeks (including one week for experiments along the way). As the leader of this expedition, I was responsible for carrying out evaluations of the actual route data, voyage performance data, the effectiveness of remote sensing data of sea ice via satellite, as well as measuring of the performance of the vessel itself.

The details of the research can be seen at the INSROP website (http://www.fni.no/insrop). The results were also published in book format in Japan, and the e-book version of this publication can be seen at the Nippon Foundation website.

• The Northern Sea Route: The Shortest Sea Route Linking East Asia and Europe (Japanese edition)
• The Northern Sea Route: The Shortest Sea Route Linking East Asia and Europe (English edition)

Through our studies, we found that the Northern Sea Route is indeed feasible, as well as clarified some of the major issues that need to be tackled, such as the importance of sea ice forecasts, and what type of vessels and equipment would be needed to traverse the icy seas. The results were given high value across the world.

Worth Pursuing

The area of ice coverage in the Arctic Circle is shrinking on an annual basis, but 2007 and 2008 showed dramatic decreases. 2007 showed the smallest area since observations began, and the Northwest Passage opened for the first time. In 2008, it was the first time that both the Northwest and Northeast Passages were open at the same time.

The area of sea ice coverage is shrinking even faster than global warming forecasts had predicted. Some of the theories regarding this rapid decrease in ice coverage involve the Arctic Oscillation as well as the influx of warmer water through the Bering Strait. If warmer waters from the Bering Strait are the cause, then forecast models with low temporal and spatial resolution will not be able to correctly capture this phenomenon, as the Bering Strait is narrow and shallow. Hence, the summer shrinkage of sea ice coverage may continue to decrease at a faster rate than the forecasts suggest.

As sea ice in the Arctic region decreases, there is much hope for the optimum utilization of the Northern Sea Route, and sea ice forecasts are one of the most important factors in order for actual voyages to be undertaken. The sea ice forecasts are closely linked with local meteorological phenomena and ice conditions, and such forecasts are a major issue to contend with.

Types of Forecasts Needed for Utilizing the Northern Sea Route

1. One Month to Six Month forecast: Needed for pre-voyage planning, to decide to use the northern or southern route.
2. One Week forecast: Needed for determining route after entering icy waters. It is necessary to include all ice-related information needed for safe navigation.
3. Ten Year Forecast: Needed for long-range planning and measuring economic value, from the viewpoint of the vessel being considered as an operating asset.

In conclusion, Professor Yamaguchi stated: “This is one of the most difficult issues that needs to be overcome, but this challenge makes it all the more interesting, al lthe more worth doing. I look forward to continuing to work with Weathernews and the various shipping companies to realize this dream.”