Weathernews Inc. (WNI, Tokyo, CEO: Chihito Kusabiraki)'s Global Ice Center has issued their Arctic Sea Ice Outlook for this summer season.

Through the Northeast Passage, ice in the Kara Sea and Laptev Sea are expected to melt earlier than usual, opening the passage around July. Melting in the Chukchi Sea will tend later than last year, but is still expected to open by September. On the other hand, sea ice melting in the Northwest Passage is forecast for later in the season, compared to last year.

Ice Coverage at Same Levels in Recent Years and Shrinking

From the beginning of June, rising temperatures in the Arctic have been causing a progressive melting of the sea ice in the region. Compared to the past 5 years, there has been very little change in the area of coverage (Figure 1).

In addition, looking at the distribution of sea ice for the entire Arctic region, there is clearly a reduction of ice in the Laptev Sea this year (Figure 2). Based on an analysis by the Yamaguchi Laboratories at the University of Tokyo(*), it is also clear that the ice in the region has been diverging and thinning out from last winter to this spring. This means that the ice freezing over in the winter is thin, and it is expected that the summer conditions will cause ice to melt faster from here.

Figure 1: Sea Ice Coverage in the Arctic

Figure 2: Sea ice distribution in the Arctic on June 15, 2012

3-year Continuous Opening Forecast for Northeast Passage (Russian Coast)

Based on these factors, the Northeast Passage is expected to be open until just before the start of September, which is later than last year. Meanwhile on the Northwest Passage along the coast of Canada, thicker ice in the west is expected to melt later than in recent years, resulting in an opening later in the season.

Figure 3: Sea ice distribution outlook for September 10, 2012

Supplemental Data 1 : Polar Route Openings Since 2005
(Source: Weathernews Global Ice Center)

	Opening Period and Conditions in the Northeast Passage	Opening Period and Conditions in the Northwest Passage	Comment
2005	Early-Aug. to late-Oct.	-	First opening of the passage
2006	-	-
2007	-	Early-Aug. to late-Oct.	Smallest sea ice coverage observed in recorded history
2008	Mid-Sept.	Early-Aug. to early-Sep.	First time both passages are open in history
2009	-	-	First commercial voyage via the Polar Route
2010	Early-Sep. to Late-Oct.	Mid-Sep. to late-Oct.
2011	Late-Aug. to late-Oct.	Mid-Aug. to late-Oct.	Global Ice Center provides first Polar Routeing service
2012	Opening Forecast	Opening Forecast

Weathernews will be ready to provide additional support for safe voyages in the Arctic Sea with WNI-Sat - a satellite designed to monitor sea ice - which will be launched in September 2012, and information from vessels. The latest information can be found in the High North Sea Ice Information on the WNI Global Ice Center website at the following URL: http://weathernews.com/GIC/data/index.html

*For more details, please visit the website of the University of Tokyo Yamaguchi Laboratories at the following URL: http://www.1.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YKWP/2012arctic_e.html